Tuesday 24 September 2013

A brief history of the Kashmir conflict

KASHMIR CONFLICT is a territorial dispute between INDIA , PAKISTAN and The KASHMIRI INSURGENT GROUP over the control of the Kashmir Region.

File:Kashmir 2007.svg


The Kashmir dispute dates from 1947. The partition of the Indian sub-continent along religious lines led to the formation of India and Pakistan. However, there remained the problem of over 650 states, run by princes, existing within the two newly independent countries.
In theory, these princely states had the option of deciding which country to join, or of remaining independent. In practice, the restive population of each province proved decisive.
The people had been fighting for freedom from British rule, and with their struggle about to bear fruit they were not willing to let the princes fill the vacuum.
Although many princes wanted to be "independent" (which would have meant hereditary monarchies and no hope for democracy) they had to succumb to their people's protests which turned violent in many provinces.
Because of its location, Kashmir could choose to join either India or Pakistan. Maharaja Hari Singh, the ruler of Kashmir, was Hindu while most of his subjects were Muslim. Unable to decide which nation Kashmir should join, Hari Singh chose to remain neutral.
 

Maharaja Hari Singh signed the Instrument of Accession in October 1947 under which he acceded the State of Jammu and Kashmir to the Union of India.

But his hopes of remaining independent were dashed in October 1947, as Pakistan sent in Muslim tribesmen who were knocking at the gates of the capital Srinagar.
Hari Singh appealed to the Indian government for military assistance and fled to India. He signed the Instrument of Accession, ceding Kashmir to India on October 26.
Indian and Pakistani forces thus fought their first war over Kashmir in 1947-48. India referred the dispute to the United Nations on 1 January. In a resolution dated August 13, 1948, the UN asked Pakistan to remove its troops, after which India was also to withdraw the bulk of its forces.
Once this happened, a "free and fair" plebiscite was to be held to allow the Kashmiri people to decide their future.
India, having taken the issue to the UN, was confident of winning a plebiscite, since the most influential Kashmiri mass leader, Sheikh Abdullah, was firmly on its side. An emergency government was formed on October 30, 1948 with Sheikh Abdullah as the Prime Minister.
Pakistan ignored the UN mandate and continued fighting, holding on to the portion of Kashmir under its control. On January 1, 1949, a ceasefire was agreed, with 65 per cent of the territory under Indian control and the remainder with Pakistan.
The ceasefire was intended to be temporary but the Line of Control remains the de facto border between the two countries.
In 1957, Kashmir was formally incorporated into the Indian Union. It was granted a special status under Article 370 of India's constitution, which ensures, among other things, that non-Kashmiri Indians cannot buy property there.
Fighting broke out again in 1965, but a ceasefire was established that September. Indian Prime Minister, Lal Bhadur Shastri, and Pakistani President, M Ayub Khan, signed the Tashkent agreement on January 1, 1966.
They resolved to try to end the dispute, but the death of Mr Shastri and the rise of Gen Yahya Khan in Pakistan resulted in stalemate.
In 1971a third war, resulting in the formation of the independent nation of Bangladesh (formerly known as East Pakistan). A war had broken out in East Pakistan in March 1971, and soon India was faced with a million refugees.
India declared war on December 3, 1971 after Pakistani Air Force planes struck Indian airfields in the Western sector.
Two weeks later, the Indian army marched into Dhaka and the Pakistanis surrendered. In the Western sector the Indians managed to blockade the port city of Karachi and were 50 km into Pakistani territory when a ceasefire was reached.
In 1972 Indira Gandhi, the Indian prime minister, and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, her Pakistani opposite number (and father of Benazir Bhutto, a later Pakistani premier), signed the Simla Agreement, which reiterated the promises made in Tashkent.
The two sides once again agreed to resolve the issue peacefully, as domestic issues dominated.
Both India and Pakistan had other important domestic problems which kept Kashmir on the back-burner. In 1975 Indira Gandhi declared a state of national emergency, but she was defeated in the 1978 general elections.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was overthrown and hanged in 1977; Pakistan reverted to military dictatorship under Gen Zia ul Haq.
The balance of influence had decisively tilted in Pakistan's favour by the late 1980s, with people's sympathy no longer with the Indian union as it had been in 1947-48 and 1965.
Mrs Gandhi's attempts to install puppet governments in state capitals, manipulating the democratic process in the state legislatures, deeply angered the Kashmiris.
The status quo was largely maintained until 1989 when pro-independence and pro-Pakistan guerrillas struck in the Indian Kashmir valley. They established a reign of terror and drove out almost all the Hindus from the valley before the Indian army moved in to flush them out. Meanwhile Indian and Pakistani troops regularly exchanged fire at the border.
Whereas in 1948 India took the Kashmir issue to the UN and was all for a plebiscite, by the 1990s it hid behind the Simla agreement and thwarted any attempts at UN or third-party mediation.
Over the decades the plebiscite advocated by India's great statesman Jawaharlal Nehru became a dirty word in New Delhi. These developments have led many to believe that Delhi has squandered the Kashmiri people's trust and allegiance.
India and Pakistan both tested nuclear devices in May 1998, and then in April 1999 test-fired missiles in efforts to perfect delivery systems for their nuclear weapons. Pakistan tested its Ghauri II missile four days after India's testing of its long-range (1,250 km) Agni II.
Although Pakistan claims that its missiles are an indigenous effort, in July 1999 Indian customs agents seized components shipped from North Korea which they claim were destined for Pakistan's missile programme.
Pakistan's later intermediate-range Ghauri III missile has a range of about 3,000 km.
When the Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, set out to Lahore by bus on February 20, 1999, inaugurating the four times a week Delhi-Lahore-Delhi bus service, the world felt that such a genuine effort at friendly neighbourhood relations would lower the tension along the Line of Control in Kashmir.

File:Kargil.map.gif

But, all hopes of diplomacy disappeared once the cross-LOC firing in Kargil began during the mid-1990s. The death toll , including both soldiers and civilians, was more than 30,000.
In the first week of August 1998 Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged artillery fire, described by locals as heavier than that of the 1948 and 1965 wars put together. An estimated 50,000 rounds of ammunition were expended and a large number of soldiers and civilians killed.
In the summer of 1999 hostility in Kargil went far beyond the now familiar annual exhange of artillery fire.
When India began patrolling the Kargil heights that summer, it found to its horror that many key posts vacated in the winter were occupied by infiltrators. A patrol was ambushed in the first week of May 1999. India belatedly realised the magnitude of the occupation - which was around 10 km deep and spanned almost 100 km of the LOC - and sent MiG fighters into action on May 26.
India contended that the infiltrators were trained and armed by Pakistan, and based in "Azad Kashmir" with the full knowledge of the Pakistani government - and that Afghan and other foreign mercenaries accompanied them.
Pakistan insisted that those involved were freedom fighters from Kashmir and that it was giving only moral support.
India ordered the jets not to stray into Pakistani territory; but those that did were shot down.
The conflict ended only after Bill Clinton, the US President, and Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan's Prime minister, met in Washington on July 4, 1999.
Meanwhile, the Indian Army had made significant advances, capturing vital territory on July 4. Despite the apparent efforts to mediate, the US maintained that it was not interfering in what India still claims to be a bilateral issue.
Pakistan withdrew its forces later that month. However, skirmishing continued, and in August India shot down a Pakistani reconnaissance plane, killing 16
The official number of Indian troops lost in Kargil was around 500, with almost double that number of "infiltrators" killed. Nevertheless, India did not declare war against Pakistan - instead, Mr Vajpayee ambigously announced a "war-like situation".
Yet this, by all accounts of soldiers and top Indian army officers involved, was a war in which India lost men engaged in hand-to-hand combat with Pakistani soldiers in the heights of Kargil - a war that could be compared with the one of 1948-49, which was limited to Kashmir, with the other border regions remaining peaceful.
Thus in 1999, in a war limited to one sector, India suffered casualities within its own territory. Despite much pressure from the military and the public, the government decided not to cross the LOC. Pakistan too suffered criticism at home for limiting its war to artillery fire across the LOC and shooting down Indian aircraft.
The fear of a full-scale war (with nuclear capability adding a deadly dimension), coupled with precarious economies and the knowledge of what international sanctions could do to them, may have prevailed in both countries.

Friday 20 September 2013

India - Pakistan : Siachen Glacier Issue....

Hello Friends, Today we will discuss about the issue Siachen Glacier.

Pinki an Army aspirant today came to me and asked a question which really gave me a deep shock .

Pinki - UT what is the issue of sachin between india and pakistan?

Me - Sachin??????? Do you mean Sachin tendulkar??? I do not know???

Pinki - No ... No....Not sachin tendulkar...it was something related to ice , glacier....I forgot the name of that issue...

Me - Are you asking about SIACHEN GLACIER?????

Pinki - Yaaaa..That one....( I gave her a very stern look)

Me -  Siachen glacier is located at Karakoram Range..



Pinki - But why it is important?

Me - The glacier is considered to be the single largest source of fresh water in indian subcontinent. Siachen is near the karakoram pass, forming almost a triangle with india , china and territory occupied by pakistan touching the edges.It is the source of the Nubra river that eventually feeds the mighty indus ( the major water source that irregates the punjab plains in pkaistan.

Pinki - but why this is an issue between india and pakistan? How it started?

Me - India and Pakistan have a disputed border in J&K, most of it delineated as the line of control with troop position on either side.While most position were delineated as per the 1972 shimla agreement, the boundary line was specifeid to onlay a point called NJ9842 , till the area from where the siachen starts.The agreement stated that after this point , the boundary would proceed "north to the glaciers" without specifying which nation would have control over which area. The matter remained non-controversial until the  1980's when the indian army discovered that pakistan was issuing permission to foreign expeditions to trek in siachen . Indian intelligence agencied found out that pakistan's army under orders from General Zia was planning to conduct a military operation to capture siachen , from their supplier of high altitude mountain warfare gear provider in london ,  (as Pakistan had placed orders for Arctic gear from the same supplier) Thus the Indian army launched Operation Meghdoot and Indian troops belonged to the Kumaon Regiment were air-lifted and moved into the glacier.










pinki - ohhhhhh..so what's the current position???

Me -  India’s stance is that the LoC runs from point NJ 9842 along the watersheds formed by the Saltoro ridge that puts the entire Siachen glacier within Indian territory.
Pakistan claims that the line joins point NJ 9842 with the Karakoram pass that lies towards the northeast, putting Siachen within its territory.
The ground position now is that the Indian Army controls the entire Saltoro ridge. There is no presence of Pakistani troops on the Siachen glacier. In fact, the nearest Pakistani locations are on the lower reaches of the Saltoro ridge



 As India managed to get the upper hand, it currently controls all heights along the glacier on the Saltoro ridge and uses the glacier as a logistics base.
Since 2007, India has been promoting treks and expeditions by civilians and foreigners in the vicinity of the glacier to reaffirm its claim on the region.
The Army has given permission to several groups of mountaineers to climb peaks in the Eastern Karakoram range that adjoins the glacier. The Army also holds a civilian Siachen expedition every year and will in the future invite even foreigners to trek up the glacier.




Pinki - so now??//

Me - A year after India took over the glacier in 1984, talks started.
 
 After 13 rounds, both sides are now in agreement that the Siachen glacier should be demilitarized.
  
The disagreement is on how this withdrawal of troops will take place. The Indian position is that both nations should jointly demarcate the current troop positions in the region. This would involve an exhaustive process to determine and delineate current troops positions both on the ground and on a map. After this demarcation or “authentication” of troop positions, India believes, troops can be moved back to pre-1984 positions and the border issue can be solved with dialogue.

Pakistan agrees that the issue should be resolved with talks but is strongly against a demarcation of troop positions.
  
Pakistan believes that any joint demarcation or authentication of troops positions can be used as a claim by India for future talks to resolve the matter. It insists instead on a mutual withdrawal of troops to pre-1984 deployments for talks to begin.
  
India, however, has hardened its stance for authentication of troops positions after the 1999 Kargil conflict in which insurgents supported by the Pakistani Army occupied critical locations along the LOC.
  
India wants a demarcation so that it can take military action, if necessary, should Pakistan stealthily occupy troops positions even after vacating these as per the demilitarization plan.











Ref -

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/the-siachen-deep-freeze/962077/0 and Mrunal..


JAI HIND...



Sunday 15 September 2013

A break for 50 days...

Dear all ,

 I am going to Hyderabad for around 50 days.. I won't be able to post any article for few months.. Keep on studying and wish you all very good luck for you exams and SSB.

If you want to ask any thing or there is something you want to discuss then feel free to contact me on Facebook .

ALL THE BEST.. MY DEAR FRIENDS...GOD BLESS YOU ALL..

JAI HIND...

Utkarsh Kumar Sahay
( utkarsh.sahay25@gmail.com) 

Saturday 14 September 2013

United Nations Security Council...

UNSC Motive  - To maintain international peace and stability and security..

There are 15 members in the UNSC . 5 permanent members and 10 non permanent members.

5 Permanent Members - CHINA , FRANCE , RUSSIA , UNITED KINGDOM and UNITED STATES based on the GREAT POWER or BIG FIVE..that were the victors of world war 2.

10 Non - Permanent Members - ( with five elected each year to serve for 2 years ) . The current NPM are -

  • ARGENTINA
  • PAKISTAN
  • AUSTRALIA
  • AZERBAIJAN
  • MOROCCO
  • GUATEMALA
  • LUXEMBOURG
  • TOGO
  • SOUTH - KOREA ( very soon i will write on issues between south and north korea) 
  • RAWANDA

VETO - POWER - ( Most Controversial and Highly debatable)


Under Article 27 of the UN Charter, Security Council decisions on all substantive matters require the affirmative votes of nine members. A negative vote, or veto, also known as the rule of "great power unanimity", by a permanent member prevents adoption of a proposal, even if it has received the required number of affirmative votes (9). Abstention is not regarded as a veto despite the wording of the Charter. Since the Security Council's inception, China (ROC/PRC) has used its veto 6 times; France 18 times; Russia/USSR 123 times; the United Kingdom 32 times; and the United States 89 times. The majority of Russian/Soviet vetoes were in the first ten years of the Council's existence. Since 1984, China and France have vetoed three resolutions each; Russia/USSR four; the United Kingdom ten; and the United States 43.

Procedural matters are not subject to a veto, so the veto cannot be used to avoid discussion of an issue. The same holds for certain decisions that directly regard permanent members.

 

(Number of resolutions vetoed by each of the five permanent members of the Security Council between 1946 and 2007)



“Small Five”, is the group of
  1. Costa Rica,
  2. Jordan,
  3. Liechtenstein,
  4. Singapore
  5. Switzerland.
They want reforms following reforms in UNSC, particularly the Veto mechanism.
REFORMS IN UNSC - 


  1. Regular consultations between members and nonmembers of the council;
  2. Greater role for nations that contribute troops for UN peacekeeping missions in africa etc.
  3. Political restrictions of the use of the veto.
  4. Permanent members should explain their reasons for resorting to a veto,
  5. Permanent Members shouldn’t use their Veto power in following cases
    1. and in cases of genocide
    2. other serious violations of human rights / international humanitarian law




RESULTS -
  • In the May 2012, The S-Five, tried to move a resolution in this regard, in the UN General Assembly, but the Big Five forced them to withdraw it.
  • The other UN member nations, secretly appreciate the demands of S-5, but donot openly support S-5. (Besides, all the “powerful” UN members such as India, Germany want UNSC permanent seats with veto powers for themselves!)

Friday 13 September 2013

INDIA - CHINA RELATION : PAST , PRESENT , FUTURE...



( DEAR FRIEND's THIS ARTICLE IS WRITTEN BY MRUNAL .. I JUST COPIED THIS ARTICLE..)

Similarities between India and China..


  • In the 1950s, India and China were weak developing countries.
  • Today, China is the world’s second-largest economy and India is in the top ten.
  • Both have nuclear weapons + huge military.
But there are many factors, which put these two nations on unequal grounds:


  • In 1970, India had a higher GDP than China, But Today, China’s GDP is four times that of India’s, and the ratio is still increasing.
  • By almost any measure, China is more developed than India. Because In addition to its GDP, only a small percent of China’s people live in poverty,
  • China has made a far greater effort to educate  its citizens than India.
  • The access to electricity and the Internet are all higher in China.
  • Statistical projections suggest that China’s GDP, could equal that of the US by 2030.
  • While India just tried to be ahead of Pakistan in term of Defense technology, China has sought to counter the United States’ military power. That’s why China has made greater investments in military power, both conventional (Tanks and missiles) and unconventional (cyber attacks).
  • US is facing economic downturn and unemployment. Therefore Obama administration has reduced the defense expenditure.
  • Right now, China has unquestioned military superiority over India and if situation continues to be bad in USA’s economy then Chinese military will become even more advanced and high tech than USA’s.
  • Apart from these things, China is a permanent member of UN security council (UNSC) and thus enjoys the veto power.
  • China has a major voice in the international system, especially in economic and financial matters- compared to India
  • All of these make China a formidable antagonist for India, if the status quo is maintained.


  • China tilts towards Pakistan in its dispute with India over Kashmir. China has supported the rebel movements in India’s Northeast and red corridor.
  • China is assertive (and at times aggressive) about its claim on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.
  • Chinese military deployments across the disputed border are much, much greater than India’s.

PAKISTANI ANGLE - 

  • Pakistan is India’s permanent security headache.
  • Pakistan has long received Chinese support, ensuring that India’s attention is diverted away from China.
  • Pakistan is providing China with a friendly route to the Energy rich Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf.
CONTROL OVER BORDER REGION -

  • China has an ambitious forward policy towards controlling Tibet and Xinjiang.
  • While India prefers to maintain status quo for issues on Kashmir and North East.
  • China has done an impressive job promoting economic integration and infrastructure both in Tibet and Xinjiang
  • India has failed to bring economic prosperity, internal security and reasonable governance in Kashmir and North East.
  • In fact Delhi is struggling to provide, 50 years later, basic road connectivity to its frontier regions.
CYBER WARFARE -
  • In Information and Technology, India has a globally competitive industry and a deep pool of talent.
  • But it has not been used for notorious purposes like China does :hacking gmail accounts of Dalai Lama and foreign ambassadors, hacking and deleting websites of Tibetian activists etc.
  • Cyber warfare, communication blockade, internet censorship (in an event of war), Chinese capacity are better than ours.
FACTORS AGAINST CHINA -

#1: Enemy of Enemy is our friend

  • Chinese relations with the US have entered a difficult phase.
  • China is engaged in maritime territorial disputes with Japan 
  • China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea have caused deep resentment in Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei and so on.
  • And with all these countries, we have good bilateral relations.
  • Therefore, the present international power play is arguably to India’s advantage.

#2: China’s vulnerability in Indian Ocean

  • China’s goods and oil cargos pass through Indian Ocean, over which over Navy has formidable presence. (Observe Strait of Malacca in above map).
  • Therefore, unless China is 100% sure of a full military and psychological victory over India, it would have no use for a military attack.
  • And hence the possibilities of a Chinese offensive in the high Himalayas are considered remote.
  • Besides, the increased Indo-China trade and economic relations are a deterrent to belligerence (Aggressiveness) because those who trade heavily do not usuallytrade blows.

#3: India’s Soft Power

  • India has a history of largely positive relations with Himalayan neighbours, the central Asian states and Russia (the two notable exceptions of China and Pakistan).
  • China, by contrast, has a history of border disputes and outright war with many of its continental neighbours, from Russia to Vietnam.
  • The growth nationalism in Japan, Korea, and Vietnam.  They’re becoming more assertive when dealing with China.
  • Therefore, China’s access to the Pacific and Indian Oceans, is blocked by a network of democracies from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to the Philippines, Indonesia, and Singapore.
  • India’s rise, by contrast, is not perceived as a threat by other east and southeast Asian states.

#4: Military technology

  • India has no offensive capacity (or doctrine) while China has ample ability to go on the offensive – as it showed in 1962.
  • But the Chinese also know that India’s defensive capacity along the border is more than adequate.
  • Precision strike weapons (guided missiles etc) cost US $500,000 a round in 1990. They cost $10,000 or less today.
  • It means the price of precision strike weapons has been coming down, and their reliability, range and damage-power has been increasing.
  • During war, Use of such Precision strike weapons favor countries with defensive strategies (India).

#5: India’s economic position

  • Economic growth is easier when you are catching up to richer countries.  Because there is a world of foreign technology and business practices for you to acquire and use to increase your productivity rapidly.
  • But After a few decades of catching up, you have taken advantage of most foreign know-how. At that point, economic growth would require you to invent your own technology.
  • This means slower growth in productivity
  • China is perhaps 25 years ahead of India in its economic development, which means that it is 25 years closer to hitting these limits.
  • So India’s potential rate of growth going forward is higher.
  • When we combine this with demography, it is possible for India’s GDP to overtake China in the future.

#6: Demographic dividend

  • Within a few decades, the Chinese labour force will shrink (because of their one child policy) and thus China’s internal consumer demand = reduced..
  • supply of young Chinese people in rural areas who can move into manufacturing jobs = reduced
  • Thus China’s GDP will start declining.
  • But India faces no such demographic crunches.
  • If we pour more money in  vocational skill training, then we’ll have a young, productive and growing labour force = higher GDP in future.

Food for thought

  • It is said that in the coming years, China will replace US as the world super power. However last major power transition from Britain to the US (After World War II) helped India achieve independence.
  • So let’s consider for a moment, what will happen to India, If and when there is power transition from US to China

China as World’s Superpower

  • After the death of the Dalai Lama, China could pressure for India to shut down all Tibetan political activity in India and to force the Tibetan government-in-exile into further exile outside India.
  • Tibetan refugees in India would be asked to take Indian citizenship or to leave India.
  • Unlike the 1962 war, a future military clash may not be restricted to land warfare at the border — instead, we may see a more dispersed set of strikes with precision weapons that disable Indian capabilities as well as cyber attacks.
  • China would also be likely to bring to bear financial pressure on India, using economic warfare levers via high levels of investment and trade.
  • China could armtwist/buy the Politically and Financially weak regimes surrounding India (Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal)  and build permanent military bases there. Just like US did in Middle East and Central Asia.
  • Similarly, China could soon enjoy a permanent and relatively inexpensive naval presence in the Indian Ocean via naval bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Maldives etc.
  • And then, China might end up controlling Tawang, which Chinese officials currently refer to as part of “south Tibet” (along with the rest of Arunachal Pradesh)
  • If in future, another 26/11 terror attack happens in india, and India decides to launch military strike against Pakistan, then China would be in a position to pressure India into an unfavourable settlement or ceasefire.
  • China would then silence Indian free speech on internet and in international platforms (UN etc), via combination of diplomatic and economic pressure, and Chinese cyber Attacks.
  • Ultimately, it might result in a kind of “Finlandisation” of India, according to which Indian leaders would make regular pilgrimages (visits) to China to “co-ordinate” and seek approval of Chinese leaders, on all major international questions even at the cost of Indian national interests.
Well then Good grief, China is not the world power! But then the question is:

What should India do to counter China?

  • When we invest money in military or medical research or child education, it’d determine what capabilities we will have 20 years hence. But unfortunately the current political environment: policies are oriented more towards short term electoral benefits.
  • The foremost task for India is to maximise its potential national power by maximising its economic growth & demographic dividend, reducing poverty, enhancing social peace and securing international peace.
  • Adopt an anti-access, area denial strategy in Tibet, where China is dependent on a limited number of roads, rail lines and runways.
  • India should cooperate more actively with other Asian countries to make it harder for Chinese naval power to operate in the Indian Ocean.
  • India must fix its cyber vulnerabilities, Government websites and communication system — this is a problem more in need of attention than large sums of money (by the standards of military spending).
  • Compared with India’s, Chinese military hardware costs are lower because they typically involve domestic production. Therefore, India should increase the spending on Research and Development for Domestic production of military hardwares.
  • Chinese military strategic doctrine emphasises speed and surprise and thus Indian counter doctrine should emphasise paranoia and flexibility.
  • Tactically speaking a mountainous border is good terrain to Indian army to defend, but it still leaves room for strategic surprises — for instance, a Chinese attack through Bhutan.
  • Ideally, India’s military should constantly think through such novel scenarios and fine tune the deployment accordingly.

Conclusion

  • We must of course engage, economically and culturally with China to better our relationships.
  • But China’s geopolitical interests are fundamentally adversarial to India’s. China is a nation with definite views on the international order and border Issues, which will prevent it from becoming India’s most trusted ally.
  • The gap between Chinese and Indian power is much less than previous decades, but there is no room for complacency.
  • Moreover, the costs of adopting preventive measures are much lower than the costs of inviting Chinese aggression by failing to compete.
  • Therefore, it would be irresponsible for India not to take steps to ensure that China thinks twice before challenging the status quo in relationship.

Update: Contribution from Mr. Vijay Ravi Srikanth

Bitterness in Indo-China relations because

  1. Recent evidence to understand China’s aggression :denial of visas to kashmiris and residents of Arunachal stating that they are integral parts of china(given special type of visas).
  2. South china sea dispute(recently warned against India- Vietnam’s oil exploration pact).
  3. China Voiced against our President’s visit to Arunachal.
  4. Rapidly developing infrastructure and Highways at Borders and new deployments(photographic evidence from NASA’s satellites).
  5. increasing ties with Pakistan(Chashma nuclear reactors, Paksat launching, string of pearls policy) f.India’s ship has been taken into its custody and released soon after some questionnaire saying that We had violated the international maritime laws in south China sea(India denied ) f.constructing dam with no prior consultation with India on Brahmaputra in Tibet(Zangmu project).
  6. g.negotiations started with Bhutan and Nepal regarding strengthening of ties and military bases.

China is facing internal problems

  1. no democracy, nearly a million protests in previous year, strict laws of inheritence- growing dissatisfaction, resurgent movements and separatist movements(Uyghurs, Xinziang, Shanghai, Taiwan).
  2. a million protests is not a simple issue as any protest is nothing but a simple and visible tip of ice berg- i mean a great amount of dissatisfaction among people.no country can concentrate on external issues without improving internal problems.
  3. recent India China developments- joint consultative mechanism, SHADE(shared Deconfliction- first military development of its kind between India and China)
  4. India’s recent developments in military issues Dassault Raffale deal, INS sahyadri, Shiwalik, Satpura, Agni 5, Arihant(nuclear),INS Vikramaditya , Ins vikrant(under construction) and pacts like GLONASS, process initiated to launch one more new naval base at Kolkata(preparedness towards China’s string of pearls policy. regular military exercises-with France and Germany, exercise in Rajastan….many others malabar exercises(all these happened in recent past- a year)
  5. china’s one child policy may show a negative impact on its future but it is only up to 2 to 3 decades. After that it would be more advantageous to it.
  6. our missiles and nuclear power may deter war but once the war is broken out, out of unforeseen accidents it causes huge losses to us.
  7. Today India- China trade value is nearly $70 billion. so huge. and so it is a crucial time to diversify our markets to avoid dependence on China by strengthening our economy.(otherwise it can create inflation in our country during war times because of huge mismatch in bilateral trade balance)
  8. It is time to strengthen our systems to cope up the situation. we have to focus on long term issues also(education, research, diplomacy, new markets and trade….)

Thursday 12 September 2013

Pakistan: Kishanganga Hydroproject Judgement

Today I was reading an article on Kishanganga Hydroproject and it came to my mind that i must discuss this topic with you all..

Jethalal - Mehta Saab..What is this Kishan Ganga Project? Some temple of Lord Krishna??? Heard somewhere that this became a reason of dispute between India and Pakistan.

Mehta -- No Jaithalal , Kishanganga is a tributary of Jhelum river.When Kishanganga enters Pakistan, it is called “Neelam river.”

Jethalal - To fir locha kya hai???????( What is the issue)

Mehta - I think i have to explain you in detail..

Jethalal - If your explanation will take time then let me go back to home and bring some jalebi , phaphda..

Mehta - Listen to me very carefully... ok ....

.Lets First start with INDUS WATER TREATY.
Signed between India(Nehru) and Pakistan (Gen.Ayub Khan), in 1960.
It allocates the water in following manner
.Tributaries of Indus River - Sutlej , Ravi , Beas , Chenab , Jhelum 

Eastern Rivers  - Sutlej , Ravi , Beas . This water belong to exclusively India.

Western River - Chenab , Jhelum , Indus. This water belongs to pakistan .However , India can make limited use and build hydro projects with certain conditions.

Permanent Indus Commission -

Indus Water Treaty provides for this Commission.
It is made up of one Indian + one Pakistani Commissioner.
PIC holds meetings, inspects the projects on these rivers (to make sure neither party is violating anything).
If either party is making or modifying any canal, projects etc. they’ve to share data/ information to other party.
Water related issues/disputes should be solved by talks and negotiations.
If talks/negotiations fail, then India / Pakistan can approach a third party neutral expert.

Kishanganga Problem - 





As you can see, India is building a dam at a place called “Gurez”. (work done by National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC))
India will divert this water via a 20+ km tunnel for generating electricity.
This tunnel will deliver water to Kishanganga hydroelectric plant (KHEP) @Bonar Nalla and generate about 300+MW electricity.
Pakistan objected to this project.
India refused to stop the project.
So, 2010 Pakistan approaches International Court of Arbitration (ICA) saying that India has violated the Indus water treaty of 1960.
The court gave stay order and stopped India from constructing the project while the case was going on.

Pakistan Objections -

If India builds a dam on Kishanganga and diverts water then

1. Less Electricity for Pakistan 

We are also building a Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower project.
This plant will have electricity generation capacity of almost 1000MW.
But if India builds a dam on Kishanganga (=Neelum) then less water flow for Pakistan’s side = this project’s electricity generation capacity will be reduced by 150MW.
2. Less water for Pakistan 

We’ll will receive 15% less water (from our original share of river waters according to Indus Water treaty).
We might not get water at all from Neelum River for about seven to nine months a year! = not good for agriculture.

International Court of Arbitration at Hague - 

India was represented by noted legal expert Mr.Fali S Nariman

CourtAfter hearing both the side, We order that
  1. India has right to build dam and divert water from River Kishanganga.
  2. BUT India will have to maintain some minimum water flow, for Pakistan’s use. It means Indian doesn’t have right to “FULLY” divert water.
IndiaOk how much minimum water flow do we need to maintain for Pakistan?
CourtThat we’ll tell you in December 2013. But in the mean time, both of your submit your survey database to us. So we can decide the minimum flow.
And @Pakistan, you also give data on how much water do you from Kishanganga sorry Neelam, for agriculture/irrigation?
PakistanOk.
IndiaObjection! I suspect that Pakistan will intentionally come up with fake data that they need huge amount of water for irrigation!
CourtIt is for us to decide whether data is legit or fake! But submit the data first.
Plus, When both of your submit data, you’ll be given the opportunity to make objection against other party’s data.


To sum up: This is only a “partial verdict”, and “full” verdict will come in Dec 2013.
 

Mehta - Got it?????????/

Jethalal - I am going to sleep. it's already very late... Shubh Ratri..

Mehta - Gud Nt...

Courtesy : Originally written by Montu..


Wednesday 11 September 2013

G-20 Saint Petersburg summit , 2013

Friends in this article I will discuss about G-20 which is indeed the most powerful in today's world..Why is it so powerful? What are its impact ? lets clear all such question ...One day Saboo asked to Chacha Chowdhary about G-20..and lets read their fruitful  discussion 

Saboo - Chacha Jee...Tell me something about G-20? It's a current issue... and very important for my interview in my SSB...

Chacha - Saboo first of all you belong to Jupiter so you are not eligible for defence services.. for the sake of your curiosity i am telling you, G - 20 , as the name implies , G for Group and this is a group of 19 FINANCE MINISTER'S and Central Bank Governor's from major economies and  1 European Union so it is named as G-20....

Saboo -  When it was formed?

Chacha Jee - In 1999 , The G-20 was proposed by former Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin as a forum for cooperation and consultation on matters pertaining to the international financial system..

The heads of the G-20 nations met semi-annually at G-20 summits between 2008 and 2011. Since the November 2011 Cannes summit, all G-20 summits have been held annually. Russia currently holds the chair of the G-20, and hosted the eighth G-20 summit in September 2013.



 G-20 Saint Peters-burg summit , 2013


During the summit, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh focused on the ongoing economic crisis and urged the G-20 nations to pay more attention to their monetary policies

Syria -

The summit was dominated by questions regarding the Syrian civil war and any potential international reaction to the Ghouta chemical attacks. The summit came after U.S.-led efforts to obtain a UN Security Council resolution authorising military strikes against the Assad government had failed due to Russian and Chinese opposition. The British House of Commons had defeated a motion regarding UK involvement in any strike on 30 August and U.S. politicians were debating potential action as the summit was ongoing.

Media billed the summit as a contest between U.S. President Barack Obama, trying to garner support for military action, and Russian president Vladimir Putin in opposition to any such action. 11 countries signed a U.S.-authored statement blaming and condemning the Assad government for the attacks and calling for a strong international response.

Saboo - Chacha Jee ..people say very true about you.. that your mind works faster than computer..



So you can understand the potential of this group because it involve economy , Finance ministers , central bank governor so if any decision is taken by this group then it will effect almost 2/3rd population of this world.

This is one of the very important topic which is generally asked in interviews and other exams. you must know the basics of G- 20 and about it's present summit...

JAI HIND..




Tuesday 10 September 2013

India - Pakistan : Sir Creek Border Dispute

History of Sir Creek issue -


  • After the Indo-Pak was of 1965, a UN tribunal was formed to settle the  border between Sindh and Kutch.
  • Till 1968, India and Pakistan were providing competing histories of the region.
  • In arguments made at the UN tribunal, India claims that Kutch was a well-defined entity. The Raos of Kutch only paid tribute to imperial powers, first Mughal, then British.
  • Pakistan uses different colonial sources to say the Kutch never had an existence of its own, that the rulers of Sindh had invaded and occupied parts of the Rann in the 18th century, and that the whole breadth of the Rann was the boundary between Kutch and Sindh.
  • In spite of this historical nebulosity, the tribunal supported India’s claim to 90 per cent of the Rann, fixed the land border up to a point called the Western Terminus, but left the westernmost part of the border fluid. This includes the stretch of water under Sir Creek, now under dispute.
  • India and Pakistan are said to have been close to an agreement in 2007; the two sides had reportedly exchanged maps that matched. The process was derailed by the 26/11 attacks and it was not until 2011 that talks started again.


Sir Creek is a 96-km strip of water that is disputed between India and Pakistan in the Rann of Kutch marshlands. The creek, which opens into the Arabian Sea, divides the Kutch region of Gujarat and the Sindh province of Pakistan.




Harami Nala -

Harami Nala is a marshy, sluggish and shallow water channel, spread over 500 sq km in Kutch, in the Sir Creek region, where both Indian and Pakistani fishermen sail to catch the prized variety of fishes, and at times get caught by the Costal guards of either country and spend years in Jail.

Pakistani Claim -

Pakistan claims the creek lies in its territory; with the international border falling on the east of the creek. Since 2011, it has extended its claim to Pir Sanai Creek. The landmass separating Pir Sanai from Sir Creek has disappeared, it says, and the mouths of the two water bodies have “almost merged”.

India Claim - 

The creek should be divided between the two countries along the thalweg or the main navigable channel.



Solution -

  • If Sir Creek is to be treated as a water border, it must be divided according to international laws that govern such boundaries. Under such laws, the international boundary in a navigable river lies along the thalweg.
  • But application of international laws becomes difficult in terrains that constantly change shape.
  • In marshy areas like the Rann, landmasses emerge and slip back into water. The joint survey held by India and Pakistan held in 2007 claimed Sir Creek had shifted nearly 1.5 km eastwards.

Conclusion -

  • The resolution of the Sir Creek dispute would have resonances in larger economic and strategic matters.
  • The boundary at the creek would have a direct bearing on maritime borders between India and Pakistan, determining the exclusive economic zone of each country in the Arabian Sea.
  • Solving Sir Creek has also been held up as a first step to the resolution of graver border conflicts between India and Pakistan.

Originally written by Ipsita Chakravarty and Mrunal....




Thursday 5 September 2013

National Food Security Bill

Dear Friends, In this article I want you to provide a glimpse of highly acclaimed and famous NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY BILL. First of all I want to make one thing very clear that NFS is a bill not an act yet.
A bill is represented by the concerned minister in the parliament ( wahi jahan sab ladte rehte hain..tv mein dekha hoga)..If the bill get passed in the Loksabha and Rajyasabha and if the President of India give his assent to the bill then it becomes an act..Ok..so at present it is just passed by the parliament , President's assent is required ..So it's a bill....

Now salient feature's of the bill..which I recently discussed with my friend Dhaniya...

Dhaniya --- Yaar what is this National Food Security Bill? ( from now on I will write NFS and it doesn't stand for Need for Speed)

Me - As the name implies Food Security for the nation. Government will provide Food...

Dhaniya - But I do not need it.. My father is a business man and we also do not live in a food scare place..

Me - It's not about you.. It's about those who are poor and those who comes under below poverty line..... who can't afford it...

Dhaniya -- acchaa.. Please elaborate..

Me -  Government will bring 75% people of rural area and 50% people of urban area under food security.

Dhaniya - what they will give? Butter Chicken?? Malai Kofta??? Butter naan...????????

Me - No dhaniya ,  They will provide nutritional food grains with special focus on children , pregnant women and lactating women. They will get their assigned food grains from PDS...

Dhaniya - I know PVR but what is this PDS??

Me - PDS stand for public distribution system .. It's like small retailer shops from where we generally purchase our day to day commodities. The same way PDS distributes food grains like wheat, rice, pulses in very subsidised rate to the poors.. this rate is decided by the government..

Dhaniya -- Ohh like in NAYAK movie , where few shopkeepers were cheating poor people and then Anil kapoor come as a C.M. and arrested them..

Me - Yes.. this happens in real world also.. but through this policy government completely revolutionized this delivery system. Now they will deliver the goods at door step of the assigned person and everything will get computerised including payment also.Now they will give you a computerised receipt of how much food grains they delivered and what price they charged..This will bring transparency in the system... Nice initiative taken by the MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS

Dhaniya - Who is the Minister of that???

Me - Currently Prof. K.V. Thomas in the minister for  MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS...

Dhaniya - How much food grain do they provide?

Me - NFS will cover 2/3rd of the Population and they will get 5 kg of food garins per month at highly subsidized rate of 1 - 3 rupees per kg.

Dhaniya -- Ok ..

Friend's there are a lot of data's in the bill like how much food grains will be provided? Which food grains will be provided on what quantity? How Centre and State will resolve the differences ?

I have just provided you an overview of this policy..so that you can take participation in group discussion and interview..If I will provide you more numerical and complex data then it will lead to confusion.

I hope after reading this you will get an overview of NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY BILL...

JAI HIND


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Relation between Communication Skill and English

Dear Friends ,

Many aspirants , students, people always says that our communication skill is not good. That is the prime reason we didn't able to express our thoughts more effectively in an interview and this leads to rejection.

Many ask that if I will speak in Hindi in interview or in group discussion then will it be lead to my rejection.

ENGLISH ..... THE MOST EASIEST LANGUAGE OF THIS WORLD.....

Communication skill - A good and effective communication skill requires few more qualities apart from having a good command in any language. Few of them are -
  • KNOWLEDGE - If you have knowledge of the subject then you can speak with confidence. For example if I will discuss the story of " Chennai Express " movie then I think most of my young friends will actively participate in the discussion but if I will discuss U.S. - India bilateral relations then you need knowledge to discuss.. What most of the candidates do is , if they do not know anything about the subject then they will listen to the other candidates first and then they will contribute.. but they are not contributing anything they are only repeating what others have just said but in a little different manner.
  • When you speak then you must speak with assertiveness and josh.. Many of the time you have seen few people who speak and give very valuable information but they lack confidence so no one listens to them. They lack the quality to stand for their point with rational reasons.
So you can see that a part from a language their are other things which are required to communicate effectively.

In defence forces  English is required because in this era of globalization when most of the countries are involved in various joint exercises , most of the missiles , aircraft's comes from diversified countries then you need a good command on English language so that you can accomplish the assigned targets successfully.


 You are applying for the post of commissioned officer , you will lead our nation in this various exercises in different countries. 

Like we have hindi as our national language , the same way other countries have their languages but they all use most widely acceptable and easy to learn language : ENGLISH.

Specially in SSB if your English is not good, even if you commit few grammatical mistakes then also its ok.. but speak with confidence and in English language only. Do not let your weak English to become a hindrance at your path towards success . I highly recommend you to learn before going for interview and this is not a one day process. It will take time to develop. So start from today itself. Do not use heavy  vocabulary if you are not comfortable with it. 

If you are very weak in English then I suggest you to start reading very simple basic story books like champak and other story books. They are very easily written and you can understand it easily. SPEAK , SPEAK and SPEAK only in ENGLISH. You will commit various mistakes but that's al right Do not loose hope and continue speaking in English. Ask your friends , teachers , parents who have good command in English to check you whenever you go wrong.. 

COMMUNICATION SKILL = LANGUAGE ( preferably English) + KNOWLEDGE + CONFIDENCE

Even I commit various grammatical  mistakes while writing my articles...but still I always able to express my view..and I am improving day by day.

In SSB and in any interview having good communication skill is very important....


JAI HIND...


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Wednesday 4 September 2013

Truth of U.S.A

Disclosed budget documents for America's intelligence agencies show how aggressively the US is conducting offensive cyber operations against other states, even while the Obama administration protests attacks on US computer networks  by China, Iran and Russia.

 The document obtained by The Washington post from Edward Snowden , The former NSA contractor , indicates 231 such operations in 2011 , a year after the first evidence emerged of a US and Israeli - led cyber attack against Iran's nuclear - enrichment centre. It suggests the Obama was not deterred by the disclosure of the Iranian operation, which became evident because of a technological error, and is pressing ahead on using cyber-weapons against a variety of targets.

Unlike drone attacks , which the administration has begun to acknowledge publicly and provide legal justifications for , cyber attacks are still regarded as part of a secret arsenal. The attack described in the budget document appear to be on a far smaller scale than the series of attacks on Iran, which were part of a classified operation called " OLYMPIC GAMES".

The Post ( The Washington post) talked of a parallel effort, code- named GENIE, which it described as an effort by US intelligence officials working for the NSA and the military's cyber command to insert superstitious controls into foreign computer networks. That computer code allows US official to hi jack the computers.

The Chinese have responded that America also conducts extensive cyber-operations - including against china - and will doubtless use the most recent disclosures  to press that case.

" Friends all are same whether its china or US. No body is different.They both are criminals , but one one is local thief and other is Don. In today's  era every country wants to establish its dominance . They want to become powerful . They have various collection of deadly weapons in their arsenal. Today US is little weak due to global economic crisis and China is very powerful. China want's to utilize this opportunity because once US will regain it's position then it will be difficult for china to establish it's hegemony. Do not know what is going to happen but symptoms are not good. I afraid that this SYRIA issue may trigger the war.

                                                                                                                                  Courtesy - The Hindu


JAI HIND..


Tuesday 3 September 2013

FDI and FII

FDI - Foreign Direct Investment

FII - Foreign Institutional Investor 


Whenever I ask any one about FDI and FII most of the people give me only one answer : FDI means Foreign direct investment and FII means Foreign institutional investor. Then I have to ask will you please elaborate then few accept reality that they do not know, others try to fool me and few says - " ab coaching institute khol lein kya tumhare liye ".... hehehehe..but I simple love that expression..I received few mails regarding this issue. So here I am..

Yes the full form of the above abbreviations are correct but we need to know a little more.. You know friends most of the human beings are greedy for money, not all the human beings. They want to earn more and more and moreeeeeeeeeee..and this never ends , they want to maximise their profit...I give an example of chirkut mohan (C).. a business man ..having a conversation with his friend (F)

C - Yaar F , I want to earn more. I am a business man. I installed my industries on various parts of India and I am making good profit..but " ye dil maange more "...give me some ideas..

F - Why do not you invest in foreign countries?? like you have installed your industries in India apply the same concept in foreign countries ..

C - How can i do that???

F - You can invest in foreign country through FDI and FII..

C - oohhhhhhhhhhhh FDI.... ok ok..but what is this FDI?

F - It means you can directly invest in foreign countries. you can install your business firm in other countries but you have to follow the rules and procedure established by that country( RBI ,CCEA, Foreign Investment promotion board for India). Countries target specific sector which are required on their country , for example you do business of iron and steel and if you come to know that any specific country has huge amount of iron -ore , the labour is also cheep and they need some industries who can extract iron-ore from mines and set-up plant for making iron and steel. Will you do it??

C - Definitely , I will make huge profit but why don't the country set-up their own industries ? Why they want any foreign country to invest?

F - because it will bring foreign capital into that country , technology transfer also play major role. Your industry will provide employment opportunities to their citizens. 

C-  but what about partnership of my company? does government will not interfere?

F - That depends upon countries to countries , for example India has allowed 49% of FDI in the insurance sector. It means a foreign company can invest up to 49% in insurance and rest have to do by any Indian firm/Government. Government generally further liberalize FDI % to gain more foreign capital. Generally foreign capital comes in US dollar.( CHECK RECENT FDI% FOR VARIOUS SECTOR)

C - ohhhh that is the reason government liberalized FDI in many sectors including  Raja sector..

F - Raja sector?????????

C -- Aree Telecom sector...both is same.. and what is this FII?

F - FII is an investment made by an investor in the market( stock exchange) of foreign nation. your company only needs to get registered with stock exchange of foreign nation. Now you can invest in stock market and can earn profit.

C - Then it's better then FDI na..Why would I set-up my whole business in foreign country?

F - No Chirkut , Government generally do not allow any individual to invest in their stock market. 

C - why?

F - Because whenever you want you can purchase/ sale shares and this make markets conditions high volatile. That is the reason government only allows REPUTED INSTITUTION TO INVEST IN THEIR STOCK MARKET WHO HAVE VERY GOOD TRACK RECORDS  and in addition they have to follow various rules and regulation of market regulator in our case SEBI ( Security and Exchange board of India) whose current chairperson is U.K. SINHA , is the market regulator.
                                                    Every country prefer FDI over FII because FDI brings a lot of things and in addition it's not easy to wind up your business in any country and move on but in FII markets became very unstable if investors start taking money out from our stock market and start investing in any other countries stock market. This all can happen in few minutes. That is the reason we only want repudiated , renowned institutions and SEBI check Institution investors history before permitting them..
FII players pull out their money from stock-market even for slightest good/bad rumours and invest in different country.That’s why it’s called Hot money -was responsible for 1997 Asian financial crisis.

C-  Aa gaya Bhai samjh mein( Got it)..

F - Chirkut this is only basics ..OK go through the current news papers and RBI websites then you will come to know recent updates.. 

C - Yo Baby....


" Friends, daily we are listening about weak market conditions specially stock market.. These is only basic concept.. Read few magazines and news paper's then you will get the recent updates"


JAI HIND...


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